Mystery box weapon draw chances

[kuroihoro]

After a very long and boring playthrough, I have calculated the odds of drawing each weapon from the mystery box. This is based off of 200 draws in a row from the mystery box without it moving from it's original location. I won't be doing any other tests since each box spot has different odds as well as the number of times it's moved.

Der Riese

Appearing in order of most to least common

Monkey Bombs: 12.5%

Type 100: 8%

WunderWaffe DG-2: 7.5%

FG-42: 7%

MP40: 6.5%

BAR: 6.5%

Trench Gun: 5.5%

PPSH-41: 4.5%

M1 Garand: 4%

Molotov: 4%

Kar98K: 4%

Thompson: 3.5%

PTRS-41: 3.5%

Flamethrower: 3.5%

M1A1 Carbine: 3%

STG-44: 3%

MG42: 2.5%

Browning: 2.5%

Panzershrek: 2%

Double Barrel Shotgun: 1.5%

Raygun: 0%

Yep, out of 200 draws in a row, the raygun didn't even appear once.

[n00b_attak3r]

wow i guess der riese isnt really meant for the raygun?

[ashleyshaefferBMW]

weird... no ray gun

[thegrix]

I usually get the Ray Gun within 15 tries at the box. Also the Wuderwaffe is very common for me. I almost NEVER get monkey bombs. (Well, I got them once for the wonder weapon achievement )

[kuroihoro]

Yeah, I think the box needs to move before the ray gun appears since the box never moved during my 200 draws (I admit I used a mod to do that)

[NoSurprize124]

I normally get the Molotovs, the M1A1 and the Panzershrek the most when I play the box. I owuld think that their chances would be higher. Maybe it's my own luck, haha

[mick saints]

You didnt add grenades. Funny thing is my friend got grenades, the box was in ZA and it was round 10 with dogs and he just came back from being dead round 9...

And you didnt put teddy on the list of items to obtain from the box. The other night a team and I were in Verruckt and after the box moved we tried our luck and on the 1st try, teddy appeared.

Was this just you who spun the box or was it more than 1 character? I know that when I get the team to move the box and I'm playing as Richtofen and if it were to land in the garage , it would give me ray gun 98% of the time first try. If I dont get ray gun its usually DG-2 and monkeys.

[Camo Wildcat]

i always seem to get the kar XD

[kuroihoro]

Yeah, it seems that the box has different odds based on if it's moved or not and where it moved to. There's way too many locations and stuff to do 200 draws on every single one, so I'm just gonna leave this as it is.

[LimbSoup]

Your statistics are very flawed. I'm guessing the ray gun came up at 0% because you were holding it the entire time. Otherwise its VERY unlikely that it wouldn't come up. (As in, you witnessed a miracle) You didn't really say your procedure, so it's hard to say. It turns out that your procedure is actually very important. This is because the weapons you are holding won't come up in the box. It will make a difference whether you take the weapon you get each time or not, and how long you hold onto it. Ideally, you should have the colt only since it won't appear at all, evening it out for everything else. Not only that, but your sample size is very small for the amount of weapons there are. A thousand, or even a few thousand would produce much more accurate numbers than you have.

The answer to the mystery box probabilities doesn't require experiment at all. It's all clearly spelled out in the game's code. All of the weapons have equal probability with a few exceptions:

[*:1fyk106n]Weapons you are holding will not be drawn.
[*:1fyk106n]Limited weapons that are already taken will not be drawn, unless by a glitch. (Flamethrower, Wunderwaffe)
[*:1fyk106n]Monkeys will have a higher probability until the first person takes them.
[*:1fyk106n]The ray gun's probability will increase when you don't get it. These numbers aren't exact, but it goes something like.. if it hasn't come up for the past 6 pulls, the probability will increase to 10%, and for 12 pulls it will increase to a max of 15%.

So, on Der Riese, the ray gun is much easier to get compared to the other maps, where its simply equal probability to everything else. There might also be a modifier on the Wunderwaffe, though I'm not sure off-hand.

Let's also note that the probabilities do not depend on what location the box is in. (Unless we're talking about the ray gun and Shi No Numa). The teddy bear is also a little more complicated, but it really doesn't matter for that.

[nazizombinator]

raygun, i get it in a 3-4 tries every time...

[Lakers 24]

I'm guessing this was done with Dempsey so I reckon each character has there own chance and that it changes week on week, considering when I play on some weeks nearly every single game I play e.g. Nikolia get's the wonderwaffle on first go (first person to use it) and the following week on first goes (first person to use it) he gets the PPSH? Any ideas? Maybe a no hope for answers and maybe it's just me! LOL! Has anyone else experienced this?

[Sigint]

you forgot the magnum

i always seem to be getting: M1A1 carbine, Kar98k, magnum, stg-44, sometimes wunderwaffe.

[Anti Earth]

Yeah, I think the box needs to move before the ray gun appears since the box never moved during my 200 draws (I admit I used a mod to do that)

This is true.

I have never got the Ray Gun before the box moved.

. Ideally, you should have the colt only since it won't appear at all, evening it out for everything else.

Wrong.

I have got the colt twice out of the mystery box.

I am certain that there is also youtube footage of it occuring!

[LimbSoup]

I'm guessing this was done with Dempsey so I reckon each character has there own chance and that it changes week on week

No. There are no influences on the draw chances other than the ones I already explained.

Yeah, I think the box needs to move before the ray gun appears since the box never moved during my 200 draws (I admit I used a mod to do that)

This is true.

I have never got the Ray Gun before the box moved.

This is true for Shi No Numa only. I've seen the ray gun drawn in its original location, before it moves plenty of times. The code also supports this. Like I said before, the most likely scenario was that he was simply holding the ray gun the entire time. Either that, or whatever "mod" he used messed things up. He still hasn't explained the circumstances.. I'm also fairly certain those percentages don't even add up to 100%. I didn't say anything at first because I assumed it was the teddy bear or something, but now he's saying the box didn't move, so...

Wrong.

I have got the colt twice out of the mystery box.

I am certain that there is also youtube footage of it occuring!

Again, this is only true for Shi No Numa (maybe even earlier maps, not sure). The colt is specifically left out of the mystery box in Der Riese. If you've gotten one on Der Riese, it could have only happened from a bug.

This is all really beside the major point, though. Experiment isn't necessary. The code explains it all very clearly. There is simply nothing else to it.

[Phantom]

I'm also fairly certain those percentages don't even add up to 100%.

adds up to 95%

[joecapps1127]

Jeez give the guy a break. He did 200 randomizes and all you guys are just criticizing him.

Considering he was using a mod, he probably went straight to the mystery box at the beginning of the game using god mode and no clip. No crawler will last for 200 randomizes, so it isn't like somebody just chased around a crawler. That would mean he most likely had a colt!

Thanks for the statistics. You're math might be a little off because someone above said it only adds up to 95%, but overall I applaud your effort

[codestuffz174]

Certain mods will take away the ray gun

[LimbSoup]

Jeez give the guy a break. He did 200 randomizes and all you guys are just criticizing him.

Well, his experiment was flawed and yielded incorrect information. Thus, he's being corrected. If all it took was supposed effort to make someone's information believable, we could say anything we wanted, eh? Or does that already seem to happen..