QED Probabilities, debunking / confirming some myths

[Tom852]

Hi my beloved community.

So, we all know there is a lot of mysterious never ever seen QED effects. So I just wondered, what does this QED do and how often. So I just threw about 1000 pieces and took notes.

Some effects can only take place, if the QED is thrown at a certain object or in a certain moment, so its a bit hard to give general probabilities. As well, 1000 pieces are not enough for this here. So its not accurate.

So just read all of the post please.

Test environment

Solo, mostly Round 1, various areas, short throwing distance. Godmode & give ammo used, of course.

Probabilities of effects, that do not depend where or when you throw the QED

Frag Grenade: 5%

Semtex Grenade: 5%

Astro Explosion: 45%

Teleport: 3.5%

Spinning Gun: 20%

-Spinning Ray: 12%

-Spinning LAW: 2%

-Spinning Spas 2%

-Spinning China 2%

-Spinning Python: 2%

--A felt 50% chance of the spinning gun being upgraded.

Gun Power Up Drop: 15%

-Chance for upgraded gun: not measured, by feeling 50%

-Each gun has probably an equal chance of dropping, but see here for details of the measurement. This is not representative.

Ballistic 0.49%

CZ 0.62%

CZ Dual 0.37%

Python 0.74%

Spectre 1.11%

Commando 0.62%

AUG 0.74%

FAMAS 0.62%

FN FAL 0.62%

G11 0.86%

Galil 0.49%

HS10 0.25%

Spas 12 1.11%

RPK 0.74%

HK21 0.49%

Dragunov 0.98%

L96A1 0.74%

LAW 0.62%

China Lake 0.37%

Ray Gun 0.62%

Wave Gun 0.25%

QED 0.25%

Gersh Device 0.86%

Non-Gun Powerups:

-Points Green: 3.5%

-Points Red: 1%

-Perk Red: 0.25%

-Ammo Red: 0.25%

Pap my current gun: 0.25%

Probabilities of effects, that need a certain QED throwing

*thrown at end of wave

-->Extra Zombie wave

not measured, by feeling 20% (1/5), 25% (1/4), or 33% (1/3)

*thrown when regular power ups still can be dropped

-->Drop a regular power up, such as double points, insta kill and so on

approximately 5%

This seems to be likely to happen, however it's neither a flood of those regular power ups. It was hard to measure that, because I played 90% of the test in the same round, in which I already got 4 drops, so any further were obviously blocked. Further shorter test showed, that when you haven't got 4 drops yet, it is quite likely to happen, as said about 1/20. What this tells us, is that the QED also follows the normal power up rules, such as max 4 per round. Most likely it also follows the 'the more points the more drops' rule.

*thrown when lab (or probably also spawn) windows are not yet broken

-->Break that window

Tested once, needed approximately 30-50 QED's, which would imply a risk of something around 1-5%.

*thrown at door

-->Open it

About 10% chance to open on average.

I opened 6 doors. The amount of QED's needed was: 3, >20, 2, 6, 15, 10, 30. [>20: aborted that one]

*thrown at Perk machine

-->Give me that perk

About 1%

I earned 3 free perks. The amount of QED's needed was: 69, 56, ~150

Comments

[*:q1yz5qy0]Wall Guns are not dropped as power ups from the QED.
[*:q1yz5qy0]I can't say anything about coop. Will all players get the free perk / the gun upgraded? Or do they have to be in a certain radius? Which player is teleported? I can't tell...
[*:q1yz5qy0]Points you get from Point drops: It will give you random points between 500 and 2500, average 1500.
[*:q1yz5qy0]Points lost from red Point drops: I'm not sure about that, since I didn't get too many of those. I lost between 500 and 1500.
[*:q1yz5qy0]When 2x is active, you get twice the points from the Bonus Point drops. However, negative points will not be doubled.
[*:q1yz5qy0]The mysterious white/blueish power ups: see spoiler, its long

I never noticed till that test, but there are indeed different types of good power ups. See this pic with the same background, so you can see well that the power up color is different.

Now the problem is, it is really hard to tell sometimes, if a drop is white or green. A white drop in front of a Speed Reload machine or an opened door or another green light, looks very fast as a green one.

So, I have made this pic here with 16 point drops. For me, I'd say they are all green. However, as the effect of white point drops is described, it anyway makes only sense in coop. Like one color is points for all and the other color is just points for one. So I can't tell you, if there are white point power ups. No idea.

What it looked like for me is: Gun drops are always white blueish, anything else is always green.

True 'myths'

[*:q1yz5qy0]Yes, you can get 2 Rays, in solo and in coop, with the QED. One papped, one unpapped.
[*:q1yz5qy0]Yes, you can get gun drops of guns, that you already own. For example, you get a papped ray although you already have a papped ray. When you take it, it seems, that the system takes away your secondary gun and leaves you only your papped ray. Weird, but that was what happened to me.
[*:q1yz5qy0]Yes, the zombies will pick up the red drops. You have to prevent them picking that stuff up.
[*:q1yz5qy0]Yes, you can have 5 perks. Most likely you can also have 8. Not sure, what about Quick Revive, since you should only be able to get 3 of them.
[*:q1yz5qy0]Yes, whenever the QED kills zombies, including with Astro Explosion, you can get power ups from the zombies the QED killed.

Myths that are still claimed to be true or that I'm not sure about, although I've never seen them happening

[*:q1yz5qy0]Many users say, that the Q.E.D. can do nothing. I have never experienced this. Note that some effects can be very sneaky and hard to notice, such as when another player gets teleported by your Q.E.D. and he doesn't say anything and he is not in your view. It seems to you as it would do nothing. A simple nade effect in the middle of a big train in later rounds might seem as nothing, since damage is too low, and the zombies cover the smoke and cause you are already shooting you don't hear it. All I can say is that I had always something happen in my tries.
[*:q1yz5qy0]When thrown at a horde, the horde gets angry similar to George, sprinting very fast.
[*:q1yz5qy0]It can downgrade your weapon. Well, it never happened to me. However, I got also only 2 upgrades. So it might be possible, but just super ultra rare.
[*:q1yz5qy0]Within ~50 tries, even in an area that would not have me locked out, the QED didn't close a door.
[*:q1yz5qy0]Makes Astronaut Zombies become on your side and charge at Zombies. That sounds wrong to me, but I haven't tested that.
[*:q1yz5qy0]Similar to earning a perk, it can take you away when thrown at that machine. Not tested, but I guess not, because there is already the red perk bottle. However, in case that exists the risk is very low anyway.

Myths that are wrong

Please show us proof or correct this in viewtopic.php?f=72&t=16357

[*:q1yz5qy0]Several medium sized explosions / matryoshka doll explosion. That doesnt exist. When the spinning law is kinda hidden behind some wall or something, or it is spinning in a narrow passage, it could feel like Matryoshka stuff, but it isnt.
[*:q1yz5qy0]Gersh Device Effect. Just never ever seen.
[*:q1yz5qy0]Scavenger Explosion. Nope.
[*:q1yz5qy0]Green perk bottle. No.
What you do is, you throw the QED at the perk machine, and then you get this ~1% chance of receiving that specific perk. But you don't receive a perk bottle. You just get the perk directly. You just have it, without picking up a perk bottle.
[*:q1yz5qy0]Points go down to zero at red Point drop. Na, at least not in solo. I lost between 500 and 1500 each time they picked it up. Might also be max 2500 you loose.
[*:q1yz5qy0]If you run in a red drop, the effect will take place. No, you can't pick up red drops. You can run straight thru it, and nothing will happen. The drop stays available, and is not picked up. Only zombies can pick them drops up.
[*:q1yz5qy0]Red ammo = all ammo gone. No, all it does it empties the mag of your current gun. So you have to reload instantly. But thats it, just the clip is emptied, the ammo stock stays available. And your secondary is not touched.
[*:q1yz5qy0]It showed, that red drops cannot be hacked.

Stuff I learned

[*:q1yz5qy0]A nice 50% chance of killing a whole train due to Astro Explosion.
[*:q1yz5qy0]~15% risk of blowing up the spawn area during the easter egg.
[*:q1yz5qy0]Ridiculous chances of getting a certain gun you just need, but good chances to get any gun. So throw QEDs at beginning as much as you can!
[*:q1yz5qy0]If you have enough of those things, just feel free to try to open a door.
[*:q1yz5qy0]Pretty much no danger of losing ammo/perk due to a red ammo/perk. And in case you get a red points, who cares about those 1000.
[*:q1yz5qy0]Don't expect to get a super special effect like a free perk or a papped gun.
[*:q1yz5qy0]Well known both worth to mention: Never throw them at the end of a round, or just if you can afford (or maybe even need) an extra wave.
[*:q1yz5qy0]After getting guns I already owned... This could be a legit way to get multiple Wave Guns in one game. However, not sure.
[*:q1yz5qy0]And my major thing I learned: If you have too many QEDs and need to waste them things: Throw them at a perk machine!

Videos

Most rare or special effects:

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Throwing glitch, where you loose a QED and it does like nothing, however it does not nothing, it is just not thrown at all. (imho)

16-z3CGiYvs

QED and window destryoing:

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[nayrcraig]

nice to see this stuff finally confirmed, i always throw it just to see what will happen

[Rissole25]

I've heard you can lose perks if you throw them at machines you've already brought a perk from, basically the reverse of getting a perk on this map. Is that true?

Oh and what are the chances of getting a white points drop?

Great work again Tom! :)

[K1llsteelr]

Nice work Tom

Blowing astro up with all the zombies around is awesome

I do not believe any gun models that are not usable in the map would be able to spawn and shoot in a circle

I imagine it is a full model with effect which would be a high use of resources for a small event

I would of thought the only weapons you could get to spawn are weapons available from the box ie not wall guns

Is the player radius a variable like the perk machine radius i mean i have seen it revive players

4 players down at earth with 3 on the stairs and 1 throwing qed's at the perk machine may show some insight

You wont get max ammos x2 etc

The zombie spawn end of round effect shouldnt apply

It could increase the frequency that nothing happens

[selectyeti89]

The qeds can make power ups drop if you kill zombies with it. The way I know this is on round 70 something I was out of gersches, and wave gun ammo, my friend got down to his last QED and threw it and it spawned all four drops for the round.

[Tom852]

I've heard you can lose perks if you throw them at machines you've already brought a perk from, basically the reverse of getting a perk on this map. Is that true?

Oh and what are the chances of getting a white points drop?

I have not tested, if you lose a perk when thrown at a machine. But I'm pretty sure that you must not be afraid of it.

First, there is the red perk bottle as the perk-taking element, that's why I believe there is no second perk-taking element. Second, in case it really is possible to lose a perk when thrown at the machine, I'd expect the risk being extremely low.

See the new spoiler in the "Comments" section. Decide yourself

I do not believe any gun models that are not usable in the map would be able to spawn and shoot in a circle

I imagine it is a full model with effect which would be a high use of resources for a small event

I would of thought the only weapons you could get to spawn are weapons available from the box ie not wall guns

Is the player radius a variable like the perk machine radius i mean i have seen it revive players

4 players down at earth with 3 on the stairs and 1 throwing qed's at the perk machine may show some insight

You wont get max ammos x2 etc

The zombie spawn end of round effect shouldnt apply

It could increase the frequency that nothing happens

The guns that shoot in a circle are: LAW, Spas, Python, Chinalake, Ray Gun.

And yeah, wall gun's don't spawn as power ups.

Since I played solo, I couldn't test this player radius / QED radius thing. However, if you watch closely, the QED seems to shoot out some kind of light barrier, causing a flash in your screen when it hits you, in a circle. Don't know how far this 'light barrier' goes.

Reviving was not tested too in solo But that's true, it can do that in coop, quite common when thrown at a downed.

I just can say, you see me getting mule kick in the vid, although the QED is about 1m-2m away. So it must not be thrown super precise.

And yeah, in NML you don't get extra wave drops and stuff, but it will always do something.

The qeds can make power ups drop if you kill zombies with it.

Yep, had that too. But you can also see in the beginning of the vid, that without a zombie being around, the QED itself can make a power up spawning.

[SaLaD_FiNgErS_HD]

great post tom. My biggest problem with moon was i didnt think i could get more than 4 perks on solo but now i know there is a chance (even if it is miniscle) it is something new for be to try out. [brains]

[Tankeo Dempsaki]

Can you get mor than for perks?

(I know how to spell)

[Tom852]

yes

[Tankeo Dempsaki]

AWESOME!!!!!!!!!

[aegisknight]

The perk colors: I have never seen a red, but I can confirm that the bluish white is always on guns, and the green is always standard.

One effect that I have never seen mentioned, but has happened to me with 100% certainty, was that I threw a QED at a very large group and they all turned into enraged sprinters (a la George's scream). I don't normally carry the QED so I can't confirm the conditions under which this happens (for me, it was outside at a group of about 15+, they stayed sprinting upon being followed indoors), but it is absolutely there.

The other point is that a QED can do nothing, again this has happened to me, but I believe it is more of a glitch than anything else, just like if you accidentally double-throw a gersch, deducting two from your inventory but only one portal opens.

[Tankeo Dempsaki]

I've gotten it once on solo,

The ray gun it spawned killed me instantly.

[aegisknight]

another I got just now (again, I don't have a capture card and I wasn't expecting to find anything),

BURSTS A RANDOM WINDOW.

I was tossing them at Mule Kick hoping for a perk bottle, and I hear "massive decompression in laboratories". I go down to figure out what happened, and the window coming up from the pyramid had burst. I was nowhere near it, there were no excavators, the window just up and blew up without provocation, other than tossing a QED.

[Tom852]

I have a hard time believing you without a video proof...

Sometimes you can be close to misunderstand an effect. Like a nade exploding can maybe disturb the zombies quickly, making you think they sprint now crazier than before, although they don't. Or as it was said, the glitch thing. Most of us have seen a nade just disappear - wait I got a vid for that with a gersh.

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And then just other glitches.

The reason why I am so sceptical is that I didn't have a single window broken at those 1000 throws.... However I'm not saying it can't be, I'm just sceptical But however, whenever an effect is so ultra-rare, I wonder if it is even worth discussing it.

[aegisknight]

A capture card is not worth that investment. Disregard the sprinters if you will, but I just had the window explosion as well, which was without a doubt qed

I like to think my contributions have put me to the point where it would be assumed I'm not making things up, but it seems not

[Tom852]

Do not misunderstand me please. I'm very happy for any contribution. I checked youtube about that, as well google. I only found one person talking about this effect in another forum, which is not enough for me. So I just wanna see it myself first. It's the reason why I tested this thing.

It is likely that I've thrown QED's inside the labs, making the spinning ray gun destroy the windows, so that would then be the explanation why I didn't get this effect anymore later on.

It is just that huge load of wrong information, that made me being so doubtful about anything I haven't seen with my own eyes. I mean for example, the Wiki would say you can get a Wunderwaffe or something.

Of course its not worth buying a card just for something like that.

Overall, it doesn't mean that I don't believe you or trust you. It is just someone said there is the green perk bottle, although he didn't see it, he probably might have overrun it. As we now know, there is NO green perk bottle, but there are free perks. It's a detail but you know, lots of wrong info. The first zombie count forumla.. wrong. Power ups every 2000 cumulative points, in some way true, but here a bit modification, 2ppl 3ppl 4ppl a bit modificated, a bit random stuff in there... In the end you can forget those 2000 points, all truth was just that drops are point based.

[ASmoothCriminal]

I would like to supplement this topic by saying that I have had multiple times where a QED has just plain done nothing. All I have is my eye-witness testimony to put as evidence, but I do not want to dwell on what may or may not be covered by your post Tom.

This is a very well detailed topic and I would like to thank you for taking time out of your life to debunk some of the false zombie myths that often arise out of the zombie player fan base. Such myths are great pet peeves of mine when I play online with randoms and listen to them proclaim "here-say" as fact. I'm sure this took quite a while to complete this experiment and this is the type of content that distinguishes this forum from others. [brains]

Best regards,

Smooth

[Tom852]

Thank you smooth, and sorry aegis.

The main post is now updated. I added a category, so we have now 'true myths', 'wrong myths' and new 'stuff i am not sure about'.

So everything you say is now in there, including the sprinting rage zombies.

I also added 2 new videos, including the window breaker, including a disappearing Q.E.D. glitch.

[Black Wolf]

Just going to jump in here and say that it definitely broke random windows for me too, and I was doing the easter egg at the time if that's relevant. I tossed the QED down by the pyramid during the four tube filling step and a few seconds later I heard that there was a decompression in the labs. Nobody was in the labs. My teammate had (unfortunately) bled out, and I was on my own. I'd been down by the pyramid for quite a while, so there's no way I broke those windows.

[MysteryMachineX]

Hey, Tom, would it be at all possible that you would attempt this again? This data is a gold mine of information, and I hate to see it sift into uncertainty. I just think having another go may help solidify your data. I'd do it myself, but I don't have the game for PC, and I don't have the money/ want to spend the money on the game plus DLCs for PC just for this.

[Tom852]

The effects that are not time/location based are pretty sure quite accurate (spinning gun, gun drops, astro explosions, nades). What I could imagine to do is specificly throw qeds only at the end of a wave with all other special effects deactivated and see how often you get the extra wave or so. OR get it bit more accurate with the opening door thing and stuff.

But that's really problematic, with all those time/location based effects. The more you have enabled, the more the chance for regular effects decrease. I respected that in my table. But to measure the probability of those time/location based effects is quite hard.

[MysteryMachineX]

Hm. Okay, I understand. Thanks anyway for all the info. :)